It has been predicted that this option would yield a total fertility rate of 1.7 during the next two decades, which would help to normalize the sex ratio, reduce the 4:2:1 phenomenon, and be acceptable to the majority of people.

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Therefore, in 2002 it was announced that there would be no fundamental policy changes but that certain aspects of policy implementation would be relaxed.33 For example, couples are to be allowed choice in contraceptive methods as part of so-called client-centered family-planning services. These changes have now been introduced in 800 counties (out of a total of 3000), and more are planned. Furthermore, couples no longer need to obtain permission to have a first child, a move that spells the end of the very unpopular system of local birth quotas, which meant that couples were forced to delay pregnancy if the local quota was exceeded. These changes, together with declining fertility aspirations, have reduced (though not eliminated) the tensions associated with the government's efforts to control population growth and have allowed the government to adopt a cautious and gradual approach to relaxing the one-child policy.

Source Information

From the Center for International Child Health, Institute of Child Health, University College London (T.H.); the Institute of Social and Family Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China (L.L.); and the Institute of Public Health, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China (Z.W.X.).

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